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Sunday, January 9, 2011

BCS Nat'l Championship Game: Oregon vs. Auburn

Statistically  speaking, Oregon and Auburn might be two of the most evenly matched teams in the nation. For instance, let's look at a few of the matchups:

                   Auburn                                                   Oregon
Passing:  Cam Newton                                          Darron Thomas
     28 TD's, 6 INT's, 2589 yds                    28 TD's, 7 INT's, 2518 yds
Rushing:  Cam Newton                                         LaMichael James
 242 carries, 1409 yds, 20 TD's                   281 carries, 1682 yds, 21 TD's
Total Yards Per Game: 497.7                                       537.2
Points Per Game: 42.7                                                   49.3

Although it may seem statistically significant that Oregon scored nearly 7 more points per game,  I don't think it is because one must realize the difference in styles of play between the SEC and the Pac-10. 
SEC teams have long been known for their running backs and rugged defenses. Pac-10 teams are perhaps best known for their quarterbacks and pass-happy offenses.

Because the offenses are so evenly matched, I think the outcome of the game will depend on which team's defense steps up and makes big plays.  On paper, this is how the two defenses stack up:

                                                        Auburn                                       Oregon
Total Defense (yards per game):    362.1                                           331.5
Run Defense:                                   111.7                                           117.5
Pass-Efficiency Defense (rating):   132.2                                           101.7
Scoring Defense (points per game): 24.5                                             18.4

While the Ducks appear to be stronger on defense than Auburn, one must keep in mind that Oregon faced four Top-50 offenses while Auburn faced six Top-50 offenses.

Just like on offense, Oregon is very fast-paced and unpredictable on defense. They do a great job disguising their sets and bring pressure from all angles.  The Ducks ranked third in the nation in turnovers forced this year with 35, and also play very well in the red zone;opponents scored only 17 TD's in 37 red zone possessions compared to Auburn allowing 25 TD's in 40 red zone possessions.  Auburn's secondary has looked questionable at times this year (allowed 250.5 passing ypg); however, Auburn has done a great job of making halftime adjustments as shown in the great comeback against Alabama.

As I said before, these two teams are very evenly matched, therefore, it is very hard to say which team will win because it is practically a tossup; however, I do know one thing.  Whether Oregon wins or loses, they will look great doing it. Oregon will be wearing white jerseys, white pants, pewterish helmets, DayGlo green socks, and white cleats with DayGlo green accents.


If you'd like to read about how Oregon has so dramatically turned around their program in the last 20 years and become so fashionable, I highly recommend reading the following article:
Oregon's Fashion Statement

My Prediction:

Once again, it is very hard to pick between these two teams, but I'm going to pick the underdog Oregon Ducks.

Oregon 42   Auburn 38

After 5 weeks of preparation, I think Chip Kelly will have schemed up many unpredictable plays on both sides of the ball.  Oregon's speed on both sides of the ball will be hard for Auburn to slow down, but spectacular performances by Cam Newton and Nick Fairley could keep Auburn in the game.
At the end of the night, I believe the Oregon Ducks will be singing this year's BCS Championship song by B.o.B, "I Am the Champion".

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